The Uncertain World of Science...

“Uncertainty” is one of the most powerful words in a scientist’s vocabulary. Unfortunately, to those who exist outside of scientific literature, the word “uncertainty” has rather negative connotations. One of the challenges we have in trying break down the barriers between science and the general public is to destigmatize words like “uncertainty” so that scientific results seem less scary and.. well.. uncertain!

Different types of uncertainty

For the purposes of this post, we will be looking at two different types of uncertainty:

1. Epistemic Uncertainty. This is the uncertainty that non-scientists are familiar with. This type of uncertainty refers to limited or total lack of knowledge. This can be summarised by the phrase “we don’t know”. Although there are many cases in science where the uncertainty is epistemic, this is not typically what scientists are referring to when talking about uncertainty.
2. Aleatory Uncertainty. This is the natural variability that occurs within the natural world. Aleatory uncertainty refers to the chances that a particular outcome within a particular system will occur. This is the uncertainty we will mainly be discussing in this post.

It is important that we as scientists know how to talk about these different types of uncertainty appropriately. It is an intrinsic pillar of scientific inquiry to represent the limitations in knowledge, measurement and the “known unknowns” rather than a lack of understanding altogether.

Uncertainty in scientific progress

Uncertainty is a compelling force that steers scientific innovation. Uncertainty emphasises areas of weakness or gaps in knowledge, catalysing further research in these areas.

Allowing room for uncertainty in the development of scientific theories and hypotheses means that as science progresses and areas of uncertainty are attenuated, theories can be refined based on verified and well-substantiated research and evidence.

One of the core aspects of science that we are taught in school is there is no such thing as certainty. Researchers therefore accept uncertainty as an elemental part of science, encouraging more in-depth, collaborative and innovative modes of investigation.

Uncertainty and risk

Uncertainty plays an incredibly important role in risk assessment and management.

Confidence intervals allow us to quantify uncertainty in a way that can inform policy makers regarding decisions such as guidelines on climate change.

The ability to model complex systems while acknowledging the levels of uncertainty, allows for more informed preparation and mitigation of predicted events, for example in the predicted path of an oncoming hurricane.

The level of confidence/uncertainty informs us of what action should be taken when, and what can be deemed by policy-makers as “acceptable risk”. Understanding uncertainty allows us to see why certain decisions are made.

Uncertainty and Paperstars culture

Our relationship with uncertainty as scientists and researchers allows us to nurture a culture transparency which underpins what makes good quality science.

Rather than allowing the word “uncertainty” to diminish the power of results, it empowers scientists to openly discuss and acknowledge the limits of their findings. This creates a culture of trust, rigour and transparent communication within the community.

Taking control of the narrative of uncertainty allows scientists to demonstrate the power of uncertainty, and leaves little room for policy makers and the public to misinterpret data or to too put too much or too little trust in a set of scientific findings.

On the whole, a better general understanding and value of uncertainty allows for a more scientifically literate society that values truths over “certainties”.

Paperstars is encouraging our users to look out for indicators of the empowerment of uncertainty when critiquing the literature they are reading. Some green flags include acknowledging limitations in the experimental design or in the findings, while some red flags include mis- or over-interpretation of results, or the lack of acknowledgement of limitations in the study.

Please let us know what you think about uncertainty, and how it affects your work and everyday life!